Med This Week
IRAN ON THE BRINK: PROTESTS AT HOME, PRESSURE FROM ABROAD
The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the recent escalation of protests in Iran and the growing external pressure on the Islamic Republic.
Protests in Iran are showing no signs of slowing, spreading further in both scale and intensity. What started as an economic protest has since evolved into a broader anti-government movement. Although the government has attempted to contain the demonstrations through a series of economic measures – including the end of a subsidised exchange rate for importers –, it simultaneously escalated repression, resulting in numerous deaths, widespread arrests and a nationwide internet shutdown. Iranians began taking to the streets on 28 December to protest against the sever economic crisis, marked by the collapse of the rial and soaring inflation, against the backdrop of persistent international sanctions. Although the protests have now spread across all 31 provinces, the opposition remains highly fragmented. Among its various components are the increasingly numerous supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, who, over the years, has positioned himself as a leading voice against the Islamic Republic. In recent days, his name has resurfaced in protesters’ chants, while he himself has used social media to call on Iranians to take to the streets. This situation has further deepened the country’s international isolation, already significantly worsened by the 12-day war in June. Moreover, now that US military operations have targeted the Maduro regime, not only has Iran’s relationship with Venezuela been undermined, but fears have also grown that Tehran could face a similar fate. Indeed, while nuclear negotiations remain completely stalled, President Trump has reiterated that Washington would not tolerate further advances in Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and, amid the latest wave of protests, has issued repeated warnings in defence of demonstrators, threatening consequences should repression continue. Caught between mounting internal and external pressures, the regime appears – at least for now – unable to find a viable path to quell the unrest. Looming in the background is the risk that Israel could exploit Iran’s current vulnerability to carry out new strikes on Iranian soil.
Experts from the ISPI network discuss the recent escalation of protests in Iran and the growing external pressure on the Islamic Republic.
