ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS
DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM, UNCERTAIN PATH FORWARD
Med This Week
The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight into future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the ongoing diplomatic track between Israel and Lebanon and the latest round of US-mediated negotiations held in Rome.
For the first time since 1993, Israel and Lebanon have resumed direct diplomatic engagement, with the US-mediated process reaching its sixth round of talks in Italy this week. The ambassador-level negotiations, hosted at the US Embassy in Rome on 14-15 July, concluded with Washington reporting progress in implementing the 26 June Framework Agreement and indicating that Israeli forces are expected to begin withdrawing from parts of southern Lebanon in the coming days. Nevertheless, the trajectory of the process remains uncertain, with several key political and security obstacles still unresolved. First, a degree of ambiguity continues to surround the designation of the so-called “pilot zones”, the areas in which the agreement foresees a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces, alongside the parallel deployment of the Lebanese army and the disarmament of Hezbollah. From the outset of the discussions, Israel advocated for pilot zones that would include towns such as Froun and Ghandouriyeh, which, despite having been heavily targeted by Israeli airstrikes, are not under Israeli occupation and lie outside the Yellow Line – the Israeli-controlled “buffer zone” extending roughly 10 kilometres north of the border and south of the Litani River. Conversely, the Lebanese Army argued that operations should begin in areas effectively occupied by Israeli forces south of the Litani River, viewing this approach as essential also to reinforcing its authority over national territory and strengthening its legitimacy vis-à-vis Hezbollah. The latter, for its part, represents a second major obstacle to the implementation of the plan. Indeed, the modalities of its disarmament remain unclear, particularly as the group has outright rejected the Framework Agreement and insists that Lebanon’s future should be addressed within the context of US-Iran negotiations. Iranian officials also continue to assert that the Lebanese file will be a priority in any broader agreement with Washington, a linkage that risks to further complicate the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic track, particularly amid the renewed US-Iran escalation in the Gulf. Compounding these challenges, the 19 June Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has failed to fully halt hostilities in South Lebanon, with 344 killed and 220 injured since its announcement, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. In this context, while the Rome talks represent another significant step in a historic diplomatic opening, fundamental uncertainties remain over the viability of a process that excludes Hezbollah – the actor with whom Israel remains effectively at war. The expected 21 July meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and US President Donald Trump – particularly significant given its overlap with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recently announced visit to Washington – will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic momentum can translate into concrete implementation or whether the latest commitments will remain another declaration of intent amid persistent hostilities.
Experts from the ISPI network discuss the ongoing diplomatic track between Israel and Lebanon and the latest round of US-mediated negotiations held in Rome.
